TEHRAN – Southern Yemen is no longer just a battleground between local factions. It is becoming a testing ground for foreign ambitions, with the United Arab Emirates pushing separatist forces into new territory while deepening its partnership with Israel. These moves are reshaping the conflict in ways that go far beyond Yemen’s borders.

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the UAE, has seized oil-rich areas in Hadramout and Mahra, pushing out Saudi-aligned forces. At first glance, this looks like a local struggle for influence. But beneath it lies a broader strategy: turning southern Yemen into a hub for advanced surveillance, maritime monitoring, and external cooperation. The rationale for the UAE–Israel partnership is clear. Israel provides cutting-edge technology in drones, radar, and intelligence systems, while the UAE offers access to ports, islands, and bases near Bab al-Mandeb. Together, they see southern Yemen as a strategic corridor to expand their reach.

This cooperation may serve the UAE’s ambitions, but it comes at a high cost for Yemen. It undermines sovereignty by placing ports and coastal zones under foreign security logic rather than local governance. It also strains the Saudi-led coalition itself. Saudi Arabia has called for unity and calm, but the UAE’s actions challenge that vision. Even the perception of Israeli involvement makes the conflict more international, raising fears that Yemen’s south could be seen as part of a wider Red Sea security grid rather than a region working toward peace.

For ordinary Yemenis, the danger is clear. Instead of rebuilding institutions or pursuing reconciliation, the focus shifts to surveillance, ports, and oil fields. Local actors become dependent on outside powers, while decisions about their future are made elsewhere. This deepens divisions and blocks the path to stability. The STC, empowered by Emirati backing, risks becoming less a representative of southern aspirations and more a proxy for foreign interests. In this environment, reconciliation between north and south becomes harder, and the dream of a unified Yemen drifts further away.

The long-term consequences are troubling. Southern Yemen could be locked into permanent instability, functioning as a fixed security zone rather than a region working toward unity. Any misstep—whether a clash at sea or an attack on infrastructure—could quickly escalate, drawing in more regional players and threatening global trade routes. The Red Sea is one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, and instability there has global economic consequences. By embedding Israeli technology and intelligence into Yemeni territory, the UAE is not only reshaping local dynamics but also internationalizing the conflict in ways that make resolution more difficult.